AUTHORS: Bilgesu Caferoğlu, Burcu Süeda Acar (http://burcusuedaacar219.blogspot.com.tr/)
PASSANGER FORCASTING OF IBERIA AIRLINES
The aim of this assignment is to forecast the number of passengers for one year. First of all in this assignment of Iberia Airlines, we rather used the Passenger Load Factors instead of using the actual passenger numbers for 2 reasons:
Firstly, since iberia merged with British airways and became a part of International Air
Group,
the
detailed statistics are published not by each airline but as a group
instead, and the only airline-based information available was load factors instead of actual passenger numbers, which is much cleaner and less detailed in the traffic stats reports of International Air
group.
You
can see
an example of 2016 here: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzYyNTY1fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1&cb=636195712997022513
Second
reason is the only reliable source and also the truest information source is the airline itself. So we really wanted to use the information directly coming from the airline’s yearly traffic stats instead of anything we could find online but not confirm.
Scatter Pattern of Load Factors for past 10 Years
Linear Scatter Pattern of Load Factors for past 10 Years
Exponential Scatter Pattern of Load Factors for past 10 Years
Since the passanger load factor is increased from 2014 to 2016, we can estimate that
load factor is going to be increased in 2017. Despite the increasing slope is quite
steeper between 2014 and 2015, it is decreased between 2015 and 2016. Therefore in
2017, we expect close numbers of load factor to 2016. We can basically say that load
factor is around 83% in 2017.
We think using the exponential graphics is more appropriate for estimating becasue in
exponential graphic we could see the increasing or decreasing slope much more detailed.
We could see accural more easily and estimate for further years more accurately.
